- PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the Yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels.
- Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 13:00)
- Fed’s Daly and Quarles speeches
Tuesday – 23 March 2021
- Average Earnings and Unemployment (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to fall to 4.0% (3Mo/y) in the three months to January from 4.7% (3Mo/y). The UK ILO unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 5.1%, as labour market data for the UK remain distorted by widespread wage support and job retention schemes.
- BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 11:50)
- Fed’s Chair Powell testimony Day 1 (USD, GMT 16:00)
- Fed’s Brainard and Williams speeches
- BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ minutes should provide further guidance for 2021, after they widened the yield target range and dropped the ETF purchase schedule. Today the BoJ delivered a range of measures that effectively widened the central bank’s room to manoeuvre, while at the same time trying to make the threat that a rate cut is still possible more credible. We might see a repetition in minutes as well.
Wednesday – 24 March 2021
- Consumer and Producer Price Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The UK CPI is expected to have eased slightly in February, with inflation expected to have been at -0.4%, compared with a -0.2% rate in the previous month, and headline at 0.6% y/y from 0.7% y/y. The core PPI Output is expected to have zeroed compared to 0.3% in January, while the Retail Price Index should come out at 1.3%, compared to 1.4% in January.
- Markit Composite and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30 & GMT 09:00) – The prel. German Composite PMI is expected to decline to50.5 due to a dip at 56.5 from 60.7 in the Manufacturing PMI in March. The prel. Eurozone Composite PMI is seen at 48 from 48.8 due to an uneven recovery across sectors and countries and the risk is that the buoyant German manufacturing sector is obscuring an overall picture that is much less positive.
- Market Services PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK’s PMI headline was revised down to 49.6 from 49.8, but that still marks a sharp rebound from the 39.5 reading reported for January.
- Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -0.5% in February with a -3.4% drop in transportation orders, after a 3.4% headline orders jump in January that included a 7.7% transportation orders gain. The durable orders rise ex-transportation is pegged at 1.0%, after a 1.3% January rise. A defense orders drop is pegged at -7.7%, following a 22.0% January surge.
- US PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) – Both the Services and the Manufacturing Markit PMIs are expected to have declined in March, at 57.6 and 58.5 respectively.
- Fed’s Chair Powell testimony Day 2 (USD, GMT 16:00)
Thursday – 25 March 2021
- European Council Meeting – Day 1
- SNB Interest Rate Decision (CHF, GMT 08:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%.
- BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 09:30)
- Gross Domestic Product Annualized (USD, GMT 12:30) – We expect a Q4 GDP growth boost to 4.8% from 4.1%, with hikes of $17 bln for retail inventories, $7 bln for wholesale inventories, $4 bln for service consumption, and $2 bln for both public construction and exports, alongside a -$1 bln trimming for factory inventories. The revised Q4 GDP data will still document a sharply diminished rebound in consumer activity in Q4, before a bounce into Q1, and a still-robust climb for business fixed investment through Q4 that will likely extend into 2021. The inventory aggregate returned to accumulation in Q4 after a massive four-quarter liquidation through Q3. Residential construction continued to boom through Q4 at a powerful double-digit growth pace, while government purchases continued to fall. Stimulus payments and vaccines have lifted growth in early 2021.
Friday – 26 March 2021
- European Council Meeting – Day 2
- Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Retail Sales excluding Fuel are expected to improve by -2.6% m/m, compared to -8.8% in January.
- Personal Income/Consumption (USD, GMT 12:30) – A -7.5% headline drop back is anticipated for personal income in February as the big January bounce from stimulus payments is unwound. A -0.2% February decline for wage income and compensation is seen due to a -0.5% February drop for hours-worked and a 0.2% increase for hourly earnings. The next round of stimulus checks should support a March income surge of around 24%, with a savings rate of 30%.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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