- German Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German Retail sales reading is expected to move higher for the March (MoM) data to 2.0% form 1.2% in February and the more important YoY data to 2.1% from -9% last time.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The data moved higher in April to 64.7 beating expectations of 61.5 and up from 60.8 in March, 58.7 in February and 60.7 in January. A further lift to 64.9 is expected.
Tuesday – 04 May 2021
- Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (AUD, GMT 04:30) – In the minutes from the last meeting the RBA confirmed its commitment to easy policy. Nothing is likely to change with policy makings likely to commit to maintaining a supportive monetary environment until at least 2024 and until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% target range. No BOC surprises expected.
- Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Ahead of the RBA will be trade balance numbers for exports and imports that are likely to show a bounce back to 9.7bn AUD from the 7.53bn disappointment in April, following the big rise in March to 10.14bn.
Wednesday – 05 May 2021
- Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (NZD, Tuesday GMT 22:45) – the data from Wellington is likely to show an unfortunate rise in quarterly unemployment back to 5.6% from 4.9% in February and above the November reading of 5.3%. Employment change could fair better and remain unchanged at 0.6%.
- ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:30) – The key private payrolls number is expected to climb to 750K (a 200k+ improvement on last month’s 517k reading). The March data was impacted by Easter and Spring break was a big disappointment at 117k.
- ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The key services data is expected to tick higher to 64.2 from 63.7 which would be another cycle high and move up from 55.3 low in March.
Thursday – 06 May 2021
- Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – The BOE is due to meet on Thursday but no changes are expected. The BOE didn’t make any big changes in its policy stance at the last meeting, in terms of rates and QE. The statement expected that the policy will remain accommodative. Overall policymakers will re-affirm there will be no shift in stance until “substantial further progress” despite the economy re-opening, jobs increase and rising inflation. However, taper talk is swirling with a possible June data being floated in some quarters.
- Weekly Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The pandemic era low from November (712K) has finally been broken and the 547k from April 22 is the next target low. This week expectations are for a breach and a reading ay 540k in this key jobs week.
Friday – 07 May 2021
- Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Markets are positioned for another potential big blockbuster for the payrolls this month, following the disappointment in February, a big bounce in March and last months 916k reading. A break of the psychological 1.0 million is within range. Unemployment continues to decline, from 6.0% last time to an expected 5.8%. Earnings are also expected to tick up again, this time breaching the 4.5% level.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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