Events to Look Out for Next Week

Andria Pichidi

June 25, 2021

Growth indicators continue to improve, inflation is accelerating sharply and central banks are starting to lay the ground for a gradual adjustment in policies, which will remain very accommodative for a very long time to come. Markets will keep a close eye on virus developments over the summer and on any output changes from the OPEC+ meeting next week. Meanwhile, the week’s dose of global data releases includes US NFP, Manufacturing PMI from the US, UK, EU and China, GDP and central bankers’ speeches.

Tuesday – 29 June 2021

CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to rise back to the 1-year high of 117.5 seen in April, after a down-tick to 117.2 in May. Confidence may prove slow to advance much beyond the April climb that was boosted by vaccine distributions and stimulus.

Wednesday – 30 June 2021

Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain above 50 but to decline to 50.7 in June from 51.
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q1’s GDP is expected to be unchanged at -1.5% y/y.
Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The German unemployment rate in June is expected unchanged, while unemployment change is expected to present 16K of people out of work, 1K more than May reading.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The prelim. Eurozone inflation could drop to 1.9% y/y in June from 2.0% y/y in the previous month, while core inflation expected unchanged to 1.0% y/y. For now the HICP rate is not a problem for the ECB, but unless there are set backs on the virus front, it clearly is getting time to at least take the foot off the accelerator.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The June ADP Employment survey is seen growing by just 475K from 978K seen in May.
Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The consensus or Canada GDP results for April is for contraction of -0.8% compared to 1.0% last month.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)

Thursday – 01 July 2021

OPEC+ Meeting (All day) – The OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on July 1 will be considering boosting the group’s collective output by some 500,000 barrels a day.
BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 09:00 and 19:00)
Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The final German Manufacturing PMI for June should stay at the very high 64.9. The overall economy is expanding at the fastest pace in 15 years, according to Markit, which indicates a sharp rebound in GDP in Q2 and an even stronger report for the third quarter.
Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK Manufacturing PMI for June is seen unchanged at 64.2.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to edge down to 61.0 from 61.2 in May and an 18-year high of 64.7 in March, versus an 11-year low of 41.5 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Friday – 02 July 2021

ECB’s President Lagarde speech (EUR, GMT 12:30)
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 550k June nonfarm payroll increase is forecasted, after gains of 559k in May and 279k in April. We assume a 35k factory jobs increase in June, after a 23k May drop. The jobless rate should drop to 5.6% from 5.8% in May and 6.1% in April. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.4% after a 0.5% May increase, while the workweek holds steady at 34.9 for a fourth month. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.2% after surprisingly large gains of 0.7% in April and 0.5% in May, as minimum wage workers have been slow to return to the work force. In the last expansion we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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