Events to Look Out for Next Week

Andria Pichidi

August 13, 2021

Virus developments and China’s regulatory curbs remain the main theme for the month. The surge of the delta variant is casting a shadow over the global growth outlook, but while investor confidence is plunging real sector data still continues to suggest strong demand. Against the background of capacity constraints and supply chain disruptions a somewhat slower rebound may actually make for a more balanced and sustainable recovery. In the meantime, central banks will remain in the spotlight watching virus developments over the summer, before revisiting the tapering questions, as Jackson hole symposium is nearby. Next week’s global data releases includes GDP from Japan and Eurozone, Inflation from Canada, UK and Japan , while RBNZ meeting and FOMC minutes are also on tap.

Monday – 16 August 2021

Retail Sales & Ind. Production (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Chinese Retail Sales are expected to ease to 11.5% y/y from 12.1% y/y in June last time and Industrial production is slowdown to 7.8% from 8.3%.

Tuesday – 17 August 2021

RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The minutes could spark some light on RBA’s next actions. Note that the RBA sticks to tapering plans while continues to argue that the current uptrend in inflation, not just in Australia, is largely due to transitory factors.
Employment change & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to rise to 7.1% (3 Mo/y) in the three months to June. The UK ILO unemployment rate is expected to decline slightly to 4.7% from 4.8%.
Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q2 should remain unchanged at 13.7% y/y and 2% q/q.
US Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Expectations are for a -0.6% July retail sales headline drop with a -0.2% ex-auto figure, following respective June gains of 0.6% and 1.3%, as the March pop from stimulus checks continued to unwind.

Wednesday – 18 August 2021

Event of the week – Interest rate Decision, Monetary Policy and Press COnference (NZD, GMT 02:00 – 03:00) – The so far data has cemented expectations for the RBNZ to raise interest rates on 18 August by 25 bp, which would take the cash rate to 0.50%, and the evolving consensus is now for three successive quarter-point hikes from August through to the November policy review. However virus developments and China’s regulatory clampdown could keep RBNZ unchange as it adverse headwinds to the global recovery will be keeping central banks in generous mode for now.
Consumer Price Index(GBP, GMT 06:00) – More UK data, with Inflation from consumer spending expected to show a growth for July at 0.2% m/m from 0.5% m/m and 2.2% y/y from 2.5% y/y respectively.
Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – On the inflation front, inflationary trends meanwhile seem to be showing some signs of stabilizing and businesses remained firmly optimistic that output will continue to growth over the next 12 months. Headline core inflation is seen at 0.9% y/y in July while the inflation for July is seen at 0.2% from 0.3% in June.
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI rose 0.3% in June, not as firm as expected, following the 4-month string of 0.5% gains from February through May. It is the smallest increase of the year. Also, the annual pace slowed to 3.1% y/y from 3.6% y/y previously (which was the fastest since May 2011), though is still through the BoC’s 1% to 3.0% control range. Generally pressuring prices have been higher housing and transportation costs, along with bottlenecks which have been particularly acute in goods such as cars and appliances. Remember that this June report incorporates new basket weights versus those from 2017 that includes both pre-pandemic, and pandemic impacts from new consumption patterns.
Housing Starts and Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts are expected to climb to a 1.650 mln pace from 1.643 mln in June and 1.546 mln in May, versus a 15-year high of 1.725 mln in March. Permits are expected to improve to 1.660 mln from 1.594 mln in June, versus a 15-year high of 1.883 mln in January.
Event of the week – FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The minutes could spark some light on the start and speed of the Fed’s tapering program.

Thursday – 19 August 2021

Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a dissapointng employment report, with employment change at -45K contraction from at 29.1K growth and unemployment ticking up to 5.0% for July from 4.9% last month.

Friday – 20 August 2021

Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Expectations are for the July number to be 0.4% m/m down from 0.5% m/m, last time.
Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian retail sales for June a contraction at -3.0% on a monthly basis, down from -2.1%, last time, and the core data to be lower at -2.2% from -2.0% last time.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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