Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for August is anticipated to slow down with the headline at 2.9% y/y from 3.1% y/y.
• Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Pending home sales declined marginally after recording a notable gain in May, with both month-over-month and year-over-year contract signings slipping 1.9% in June.

Tuesday – 31 August 2021

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• Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – Softer July data from China released last week indicated all is not well for the world’s second largest economy.  It’s likely a deceleration in economic activity in China will soon spill over to the global economy, as supply chains are further impacted. The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly decline to 50.8 in August from 50.4.
• Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55) – German sa jobless numbers plunged -91k in July, leaving the adjusted jobless rate at 5.7%, down from 5.9% in June. In August it is expected to have eased a bit to -34k, however the overall jobless rate remains much higher than before the pandemic, when it stood below 5%, and it remains to be seen how the overall situation is after wage support has been phased out.
• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The prel. Euro Area CPI for August is anticipated to grow with headline reaching 2.7% y/y from 2.2% y/y.
• Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The consensus or Canada GDP results for Q2 is for growth of 6.7% on an annualized basis.
• CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer confidence is expected to fall to 122.0 from a 17-month high of 129.1 in July. Confidence faces a mounting headwind from the Delta variant and resumed mask requirements, while the prior confidence updraft from stimulus and vaccines appears to have dissipated since April. All the major confidence measures fell in August.

Wednesday – 01 September 2021

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• Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australian GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q2’s GDP is expected to slowdown  at 1.6% q/q from 1.8% q/q.
• Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The final German Manufacturing PMI for August should stay at 62.7.  The PMI readings so far came in better than anticipated and it seems demand is still strong, while data so far indicates a stabilisation at high levels of output, with still good demand dynamics, despite the disappointing headline number.
• Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK Manufacturing PMI for August is seen unchanged at 60.1.
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The key private payrolls number is expected to climb to 575K (a nearly 245k increase on last month’s 330k reading).
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to tick up to 59.8 from 59.5 in July and an 18-year high of 64.7 in March, versus an 11-year low of 41.5 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Thursday – 02 September 2021

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• Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 01:30) – July’s Trade Balance for exports and imports are likely to show a rise to 10.75 bln AUD from the 10.49 bln in June.

Friday – 03 September 2021

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• Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – An 800k August nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 943k in July and 938k in June. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.6%, matching the 0.6% July increase, while the workweek holds at 34.8 for a fourth month. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after gains of 0.4% in both June and July, while the y/y wage gain should hold at 4.0% for a second month. In the last expansion we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020, and the ensuing strength in wage gains that has allowed continued robust y/y increases.
• ISM Services & Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The key services data is expected to pull back to 63.0 in August from 64.1