Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 12:45) – The key data point from China follows the non-manufacturing number which is due on Sunday before the market open. The manufacturing number is expected to hold steady at the key 50.00 pivot point with the non-manufacturing number slipping slightly to 52.9 from 53.2.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:00) – The key ISM manufacturing number printed at 4-mth high in October at 61.1 and is expected to register a slip to a still healthy 60.4, still well below the 2021 high in April of 64.7
• Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – confirmation likely of the BOJ’s continued accommodative policy, improved outlook and inflation expectations.

Tuesday – 02 November 2021

• Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (AUD, GMT 14:00) – Australian short-term yields have rocketed this week after stronger than expected retail sales and speculation that the RBA will officially drop its yield target during this meeting and amend its forward guidance. Westpac this week confirmed their expectation for a rate hike in Q1 2023, while current RBA guidance still talks of 2024.
• Unemployment rate & Employment Change (NZD, GMT 21:45) The Q3  unemployment rate is expected to move higher to 4.5% from 4.0% with the Employment change slipping to +0.7% from 1.0%, whilst the participation rate remains steady at 70.6%.

Wednesday – 03 November 021

• ADP Employment change (USD, GMT 11:15) – The private payrolls report is expected to show a  significant drop to 369,000 from 568,000 in October. Although the link to the NFP data is clearly now broken many traders will still be focused on the size of the decline in private payrolls.
• ISM Services PMI  (USD, GMT 13:00) – A decline from Octobers spike to 61.9 is expected with the data slipping 0.4 to a still healthy 61.5. The cycle high was the August 64.1 up from the March low at 55.3.
• Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (USD, GMT 17:00)–The market expects the Fed to announce the widely anticipated taper, ($10-20bln, with expectations focused on $15bln) which should extend into the middle of 2022, though no signals are expected regarding the timing of an eventual rate hike cycle, which the market now assumes will be seen in 2022 and not 2023. Chair Powell’s press conference will follow 30-minutes after the announcement.

Thursday – 04 November 2021

• OPEC-JMMC Meetings (USD, GMT All-day) – With Crude Oil prices continuing to track higher and the Energy crisis in Europe showing some signs of easing all eyes will be on the latest OPEC pronouncements. The 400k barrels per day increase for November was part of the organizations continued “gradual” increases agreed back in July. This is likely to remain in place, despite some pressure from within for greater production increases.
• Interest Rate Decision, MPC & Report & Votes & APF Report (GBP, GMT 11:00 & 11:30)  –  Markets have factored in prevailing BoE tightening expectations, which has led to the Pound losing upside momentum this week. Market participants will also be cognisant of higher interest rates at a time when the UK economic recovery is experiencing pronounced delivery/supply chain issues alongside near record energy prices. The consensus is for the BoE to hike its repo rate by 15bp to 0.25% in Q1 2022, although there seems to be an outside risk of such a move coming as soon as this meeting after the new BoE Chief Economist Pill affirmed that the meeting will be a “live” one, signalling that a move is a possibility, although unlikely. The Governor Bailey press conference will follow 30-minutes after the announcement.

Friday – 05 November 2021

• Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Expectations are for a 380,000 October nonfarm payroll increase, after gains of 194,000 in September, 366,000 in August, and 1.091m in July. Expectations are for the jobless rate to hold steady at 4.8% for a second month, down from 5.2% in August. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.2%, after the 0.8% September increase, while the workweek ticks down to 34.7 from 34.8 in September. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after gains of 0.6% in September and 0.4% in August, while the y/y wage gain should accelerate to 4.8% from 4.6%.
• Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canada employment change disappointed last month at 65,000 in August, missing expectations, after the 157,100 surge the previous month, following the robust surprise of 231,000 back in June. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady this month at 6.9% continuing the decline from 9.4% at the start of the year.