Stock markets rallied into close (2.5%-1.5%), with news of withdrawal of some Russian troops from close to the Ukrainian border. USD & JPY cool, Gold cooled too from 8-month highs and Oil dipped to $90.00. 2yr-10yr Yields widened but both remain elevated as it becomes clear that the situation in the Ukraine is far from resolved. Asian markets rallied (Nikkei +2.2%) but have cooled into close. Biden – “Human cost of Russia attack would be immense”.
- USD (USDIndex 95.85) cools from Monday high at 96.40.
- US Yields 10-yr closed back over 2.00% at 2.045 trades at 1.997%, 2-yrs remain elevated.
- Equities – USA500 +69 pts (+1.58%) 4471 -(NVDA +9.18%, ABNB+6.14%, TSLA +5.33%) US500 FUTS cooler now at 4457.
- USOil – Futures dipped to $89.00, trades at $90.70 now.
- Gold – Fell from (8-mth highs) at $1879 back to $1845 and $1855 now.
- Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range.
- FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1375 USDJPY up to 115.64 & Cable to 1.3555.
Overnight – CNY Inflation slips, CPI down to 0.9% (expectations were 1.0%) from 1.5% and PPI down from record 10.3% to 9.1% (9.5% expected). UK Inflation hotter than expected CPI 5.5% vs 5.4%, CORE at 4.4% vs 4.3% – it’s only a tick but its above expectations, details may show some better news, but Oil & Petrol prices still rising and strong wage inflation yesterday too. BoE still see inflation topping in April, but will add pressure for BoE to act again. – Old fashioned RPI now at 7.8% vs 7.4% too.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 17 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, as the selloff in bonds is coming to an end. DAX and FTSE 100 are still posting gains of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.
Today – CAD CPI; EZ Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, Earnings Heineken, Carrefour; Barrick Gold, Garmin, Shopify, NVIDIA.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.33%) The key Risk sensitive pair recovers from 81.50 lows Monday back to 83.00 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 66.25 & rising, H1 ATR 0.115 Daily ATR 0.818.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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