The Trade and Brexit sagas continue next week, along with the OPEC meeting and the ECB Monetary Policy Conference to rattle investors. The pressure remains on PM May who needs to present a plan at next Wednesday’s summit in Brussels. Trade talks will remain in focus as the two superpowers are close to a trade deal that could be announced within four weeks, as President Trump stated last week.
Monday – 08 April 2019
German Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The surplus is expected to increase back to EUR 19 bln in March, from EUR 18.5 bln in the previous month. The trend of the past three months in the sa trade surplus is improving, but unadjusted data also show sharply lower trade as well as current account surpluses compared with the start of the previous year, which will add to signs that the German economy in particular is still struggling in a climate of increased protectionism and trade uncertainty.Factory Orders (USD, GMT 14:0 0) – US Factory Orders are expected to have declined 0.6% in February, with inventories rising 0.4% and shipments up 0.3%.
Tuesday – 09 April 2019
JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. February’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 7.54M, following the 7.58M in January.
Wednesday – 10 April 2019
Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. February’s GDP is expected to be lower at 0.2% m/m following the 0.5% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have fallen, with industrial output providing a downwards contribution of 0.1% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have declined to 0.2% from its 0.8% last month.Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI is estimated to rise 0.3% in March, after a 0.2% reading in February. The overall CPI is expected to edge up to 1.8%, from 1.5% in February.FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on March 20, FOMC left funds rate band unchanged and cut 2019 dots to zero from 2, while leaving one on the books for 2020.
Thursday – 11 April 2019
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The March’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to 0.2% following the 1% spike in February due to non-food prices. The overall reading is estimated to post a gain up to 2.3% y/y.OPEC Meetings (All, All day) Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 18:00) – The Headline PPI is expected to rise 0.4% in March, reflecting a rise on Goods prices, which are anticipated to be up 0.7% while services prices should rise 0.3%.
Friday – 12 April 2019
Trade Balance (CNY, GMT N/A) – Among the most prominent developments of late are China’s trade figures, which revealed a sharp 20.8% y/y drop in exports during February. The timing of the New Year holiday this year explains a portion of the sharp declines around the turn of the year, but US tariffs and diminished demand globally are taking a hefty bite out of China’s exports. This month, exports are anticipated to grow at 7.3% y/y, after the latest export pull. The trade balance is seen doubled at $8.08B.Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary April Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 97.8, up from a 2-year low of 91.2 in January, but down from 98.4 in March. It is still below the 14-year high of 101.4 in March of 2018. After seing a 55.3 recession-low in November of 2008, the continued gains in all the confidence measures strongly suggest that the weakness seen in December, January and February consumption will prove temporary.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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