Economic Indicators & Central Banks:
- The focus now shifts to the jobs report. Recent data, including jobless claims and the employment components of the ISMs, continue to reflect a decent labor market even as conditions cool. We expect a 140k increase in nonfarm payrolls following gains of 199k in November, 150k in October, and 262k in September.
- Yields remain elevated and near session highs after firmer than expected employment data. The claims and ADP numbers added to the losses along with the rethink of Fed easing bets and spillover from European bonds after a stronger than expected inflation report.
- A heavy corporate issuance calendar exacerbated the selloff too.
Market Trends:
- Treasuries continued to stumble in the new year. A rethink of aggressive rate hike bets, better than expected data, profit taking, and supply have all conspired to cheapen yields across the board in the first week of 2024 trading.
- Wall Street finished mixed with the US100 falling -0.56%. The US500 was -0.34% lower, posting a 4th straight decline. The US30 inched up 0.03%.
Financial Markets Performance:
- The USDIndex was choppy but ended marginally lower at 102.41, though inside the 102.15 to 102.52 range. It has held over 102 for a 3rd consecutive session.
- USDJPY rallied above 145. Yen has weakened amid speculation that the BOJ might go slowly on changing its lax policy stance as it assesses the impact of Monday’s major earthquake in central Japan.
- USOIL prices have increased 1.13% to $73.52 per barrel.
- Gold is fractionally lower at $2041 per ounce.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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