The Banks so far have done the expected and hiked rates while sticking to the scenario that further modest tightening may be warranted in the coming months. Clearly the global policy paths look less certain than they did ahead of the Ukraine war. Even though there won’t be any central banks meetings next week, Fedspeak will be hot and heavy. Officials are likely to keep the outlook confused considering the array of dots seen in the SEP revisions. The dots were all over the place and that’s what we expect from the Fedspeak. The data calendar, meanwhile, includes UK Inflation, PMIs out of the US, UK, EU and Germany and US Durables.
Monday – 21 March 2022
PBOC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:15) – On the 15th of March, China’s PBOC injected liquidity but held rates steady. However, the bank is expected to lower rates further to reach growth targets amid an uncertain global outlook against the background of rising commodity prices, although with Russian energy shunned in many places, China could emerge as a beneficiary of the war in Ukraine.Producer Price Index (EUR, GMT 07:00 ) – German PPI is expected to have increased 1.7% and 26.1% on the headline and core in February after respective jumps of 2.2% and 25.0% in January.Fed Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 14:00)
Tuesday – 22 March 2022
RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:00)
Wednesday – 23 March 2022
Consumer Price Index and Core (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK CPI inflation nudged up to a 30 year high of 5.5% y/y at the start of the year, from 5.4% in December. For February it is now expected to present upside risks again, at 6.0% y/y, and core at 4.5%.UK Annual Budget Release (GBP, GMT 12:30) New Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Expectations are for a 1.1% February climb to a pace of 810k, after a January dip to 801k from a December rise to a 9-month high of 839k. Rapid growth is anticipated in all the housing sector metrics in 2022, though with a likely repeat of last year’s spring lull as seasonal pressures intensify through Q2.Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 14:30 )
Thursday – 24 March 2022
Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CHF, GMT 08:30) – The SNB is expected to keep rates unchanged but to reiterate its pledge to intervene if necessary to keep the franc down, as the currency has appreciated along with other safe havens like the Dollar and Yen during this turbulent period. The SNB recently revised up its forecasts for inflation for 2022, while downgrading its growth projection for the year.Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The Eurozone’s & Germany’s Markit Composite March PMIs are expected to have declined, given a fall in both Services and Manufacturing sectors, leaving the composite at 54 from 55.5 for the Eurozone.Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK March Markit Services PMIs should rise to 60.7 from 60.5 while Manufacturing PMIs are expected lower at 57.7 from 58.0.Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.0% in February with a -4.5% transportation orders drop, after a 1.6% headline increase in January that included a 3.4% transportation orders rise.Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The preliminary Manufacturing PMI for March is expected to slow down to 55 from 57.3 while Services PMI is expected to fall to 56 from 56.5.
Friday – 25 March 2022
Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK Retail Sales for February are expected to grow by 0.8% m/m and headline to 8.0% y/y.IFO Business Climate, Assessment & Expectations (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German IFO business Climate is forecasted to decline to 94 in March from 98.9.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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