USD & Yields rallied significantly, and Stocks sank into long Easter weekend. EURUSD tanked under 1.0800 after ECB confirmed QE is set to end in Q3, but Lagarde was cagey on the actual timing and on the prospect of rate hikes. USDJPY hit a new 20-yr high over 126.50. US Claims missed (185k vs 172K), but remain historically low. Retail Sales were better (+0.5% headline, +1.1% ex-autos & big net upward revisions). UoM Consumer Sentiment surprised to the upside (65.7 vs 59.1). Trade prices beat – record-high 4.5% for exports & 11-yr high of 2.6% for imports. All 4-big banks beat earnings expectations but profits fell and shares varied from Citi +1.55% to Wells Fargo -4.51%. Musk moved to buy Twitter, markets not convinced, but he has a “Plan B” if it fails apparently.
- Stocks lower (NASDAQ +2.14%) Asia markets weaker too (Nikkei -0.31%) with UK & Europe closed today & Monday.
- Yields moved significantly higher, 10-yr moved form 2.69% to close at 2.82%
- USDIndex rallied from lows at 99.50 to highs at 100.75 & trades 100.26 now.
- Equities – USA500 -54 (-1.21%) at 4392. – US500 FUTS closed at 4388. TWTR -1.68% ( +13% pre-market when news broke) TSLA -3.66%, APPL -3.00% NVDA -4.26%, AMD -4.79%.
- Oil & Gold continued to recover and hold over $105 & $1970 respectively.
- Bitcoin sank to 39k zone again from over 41k, trades at 40k now.
- FX markets – EURUSD has recovered 1.0800 from 1.0757 lows yesterday. USDJPY trades at new 20-yr highs at 125.60 and Cable tumbled a whole big number to 1.3050 from 1.3150 yesterday.
Overnight – Mester (hawk) – Job market is “very tight” & inflation is “very elevated”. Williams (centratist) a 50 bp rate increase is a “very reasonable option,” PBOC did not cut interest rates as had been broadly expected.
Today – French CPI in-line at +1.4% m/m. Empire State Manu. Index.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.65%) Continues to rally posting new 20-yr highs over 126.60. Next resistance 126.75 & 127.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 69 & rising, H1 ATR 0.151, Daily ATR 1.71.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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