Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) –A 310k June nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated. Payroll growth should slow through 2022 alongside reduced growth in the economy. The jobless rate should hold steady for a fourth consecutive month at 3.6%. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.3% after the 0.3% gain in May, while the workweek holds steady from 34.6 in March. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3%, after a 0.3% May gain, while the y/y wage gain should dip to 5.0% from 5.2%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage gains.
Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30)– Canada’s unemployment is anticipated higher in June to 5.2% from 5.1%.
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