USD holds around Fridays close (USDIndex 104.85), Stocks closed higher on Friday (S&P500 +1.06%) but FUTS have slipped and Yields are down again (-4.51%). Asian shares are mixed after Chinese developer Shimao defaults and Covid concerns rise again. (Hang Seng -0.30%, Nikkei +0.84%) Oil ticks higher, Gold tests $1815 & BTC tests $19k. European FUTS also mixed. Russia claims victory in “liberated” Luhansk region and accuses Ukraine of shelling Belgorod. AUD outperforms in Asian session.
Week Ahead – Topped by NFP on Friday, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and RBA rate decision tomorrow
- USDIndex tested 105.36 Friday before slipping back to 104.85 now.
- Equities – USA500 closed +39 (3825), US500FUTS lower at 3810 now.
- Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down at 2.889% , trades at 2.880% now.
- Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil has rallied to $108.70 now from $104.55 Friday. Gold spiked to $1815 earlier from a $1785 low on Friday.
- Bitcoin continues to trade under $20K, testing $19K today.
- FX Markets – EURUSD tested under 1.0400 Friday following record CPI (8.6%) now back to 1.0425, USDJPY cooled again to 134.75 on Friday back to 135. 40 now. Cable trades at 1.2110 now, from lows at 1.1975 Friday after weak PMIs.
Overnight – Australian Building Approvals jumped surprisingly to 9.9% vs -2.0%. German Trade Balance, missed significantly, turning negative at -1.0b vs. 4.2b, & Swiss CPI, hotter at 0.7%.
Today – EZ PPI, Speeches from ECB’s Elderson, Nagel & de Guindos, US Independence Day holiday.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.60%). AUD out performed today. Rallied from 91.40 test on Friday to 92.64 now and a key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but rising, RSI 58.3 & rising, H1 ATR 0.251, Daily ATR 1.432.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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