- USDIndex – Exploded higher (to110)ending a 4-day dip. US CPI much hotter than expected. Fed Funds Futures – a 34% chance of 100bp – from 0% this time yesterday. Inflation may still have peaked but it is NOT receding as quickly as some expected, Inflation is ALWAYS sticky and often takes longer to get under control.
- EUR – Trades at 0.9980 now from a test of 0.9950 yesterday, 1.0000 resistance.
- JPY BOJ apparently conducting rate checks ahead of intervention. USDJPY hit 145.00 yesterday from 142.00 and trades at 143.75 now following the BOJ chatter.
- GBP traded over 1.1700 yesterday ahead of the US data, but tanked under 1.1500 to 1.1485 and holds at 1.1500 now.
- Stocks US stocks had their worst day since June 2020 (S&P500 -4.32% 177pts 3932) FUTS trade at 3940. NASDAQ worst performer (-5.16%) Asian stock markets down over -2.5%, with European FUTS showing some resilience (-0.4%).
- USOil topped at $89.00 again on Tuesday, crashing to the key $85.00 level before recovering to $87.00 now. 20-day moving average sits at $89.00.
- Gold – also tested lower under $1700 from $1730 and holds at $1700 now.
- BTC – slumped from $22.7 highs to $19.8k and holds at $20.2k now.
Overnight & Today – UK inflation a tick lighter at 9.9% vs 10.0% & 10.1% last month, US PPI, New Zealand GDP, Speeches from European Commission State of Union Address & ECB’s Lane.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.87%) The BOJ gossip and risk off mood has lifted safe haven YEN. Collapsed under 98.00, 97.00 & 96.50. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 20.85 & OB, H1 ATR 0.241, Daily ATR 0.972.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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