- The USD Index slipped further to test 109.20 yesterday, and trades at 109.60, at today. Stocks moved higher again (DOW +1.00%) and Yields held at recent highs. The Crypto Complex has tanked with BTCUSD down from $20.5k to under $16.8k, lows before recovering, as leading crypto exchange FTX was forced to sell out to rival Binance. Asian shares have slipped too (Nikkei -0.56%, Hang Seng -1.88%). Chinese Inflation was mixed with CPI cooling to 2.1% from 2.4% but PPI -1.3% vs -1.5%.
Mid Term election results are suggesting a win for the Republicans in the House (but not the Red Wave landslide some had predicted) while the Senate remains very close with a key win in Pennsylvania for the Democrats. A gridlocked Washington, even if the Democrats hold-on to control in the Senate, which many assume will be beneficial for stock-markets and see a weaker USD appears to be the most likely outcome.
- EUR – continued to rally yesterday and tested the next resistance at 1.0100, and trades at 1.0060, holding the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level.
- JPY – dipped again breaching 146.00 to 145.25 lows and trades at 145.85.
- GBP – Sterling dipped to 1.1440, but then rallied to test 1.1600 and holds at 1.1540 now.
- Stocks – Wall Street rallied over 1.75% from open, gave up all their gains and then clawed back 0.5-1.0%. Big movers included COIN -10.78%, LYFT -22.9% and TSLA -2.93% (Musk sold $3.95bn shares). US500 closed +21 (+0.56%) at 3828, FUTS trades at 3827 now.
- USOil – rejected $93.00, collapsed through $90.00 and trades at $88.50 now.
- Gold – spiked from $1665 lows, over $1680 and $1700 resistance to trade at $1710.
- BTC – crashed to $16.8k from $20.5k, before recovering to $18.3k now. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was forced to sell his exchange to rival Binance as a run on FTT coin, which is FTX’s token and Bankman-Fried’s trading company Alameda Research. The company was valued at $32b at the beginning of 2022.
Today – US Mid Term Election Results, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & Barkin, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Haskel.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.42%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip, to 0.5900 to test 0.6000 but now is down again to 0.5935. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 49.00 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00156, Daily ATR 0.01070.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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