Attention is turning to CPI on April 12, while of even more interest will be Earnings Season which kicks off with the big banks on April 14. It looks like a no-win situation too, as less than horrible results will be written off as not timely enough to have absorbed the fallout from the SVB and Signature Bank failures. Bad results will confirm expectations. The spotlight will be on regionals and especially First Republic with its results expected on April 12. Next week’s heavy dose of global data releases also includes the BOC rate decision & FOMC Minutes.
Monday – 10 April 2023
Easter Monday – The US market is open.
Tuesday – 11 April 2023
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The inflation for March is expected at 0.2% m/m from -0.5% m/m, while headline is seen at 1.9% y/y from 1.0% y/y.Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – European Retail Sales for February are expected to grow to 1.0% m/m from 0.3% m/m.
Wednesday – 12 April 2023
Event of the Week – Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Interest Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) – Employment gains have been stronger than expected so far in 2023 and that has put the BoC’s “conditional pause” in rate hikes under scrutiny. The BoC could think twice about leaving its rate unchanged at 4.50% at its April 12 meeting post solid employment data in March, with an employment change of 34.7K compared to the estimated 12.0K. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%, better than the 5.1% prediction. FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC minutes should provide guidance on the pace for further aggressive rate hikes.
Thursday – 13 April 2023
Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Employment change for March is expected to grow by 41.6K from 64.6K, with the unemployment rate at 3.5% m/m.Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – While the manufacturing sector remains subdued, the services sector has bounced back strongly, and last week’s upward revision to Q4 GDP means recession risks are now off the table. Latest data show that GDP expanded 0.1% q/q (was 0.0%) in the final quarter of 2022. Private consumption nudged up 0.2% q/q, government spending rose 0.5% q/q, and gross fixed investment climbed 0.3%. Still, total business investment contracted -0.2% q/q, and exports plunged -1.4% q/q, which confirms again that this is a domestically driven recovery. February’s GDP reading is expected to once again show a contraction at -0.1% m/m from 0.3% m/m.Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German inflation for March is anticipated to rise at 8.7% y/y from 7.4% y/y.Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – March PPI figures are anticipated at 0.2% for the headline and 0.3% for the core, after respective figures of -0.1% and zero in February. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric easing to 3.1% from 4.6%, versus an all-time high of 11.7% in March of 2022. The peaks from March of 2022 will likely hold, as the y/y calculations will face much easier comparisons through 2023. Overall, the massive PPI climb since the start of 2021 exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, and both sets of gains have chased outsized increases in the trade price measures.
Friday – 14 April 2023
Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – US Retail Sales for March are expected to grow to 0.1% for the headline and 0.4% for the ex-auto index, after respective February drops of -0.4% and -0.1%.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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