Market Update – May 15 – USD Holds on to gains as data & debt ceiling conspire

The USDIndex rallied strongly into close on Friday (102.50) as the UoM data showed significant weakness, with Consumer sentiment at 3- yr low and Inflation expectation the highest since 2008. Stock markets moved broadly higher across Asia and Europe. Futures are moving higher across US and overall sentiment looks positive at the start of the week. Yields are moving higher in this environment. Currencies have kept a close eye on political developments overnight with Turkey’s election particularly in focus.
Overnight China’s PBOC injects more liquidity. The central bank offered 135 billion yuan of medium-term funds, 25 bln more than the amount maturing in May. The rate on the one-year policy loans was kept unchanged. Japan PPI inflation moderates in April.
  • FX USDIndex had a good week closing at 102.50. Currently correcting to 102.35. EUR fell to 1.0844 breaking 50DMA again and trades at 1.0970. JPY spiked to 136.26 from 135.60. Sterling drifted 2-month triangle down to 1.2440 from 1.2670 highs last week even as the BoE hiked 25bps and remained slightly hawkish.
  • Stocks- China bourses outperforming and Hang Seng and CSI 300 gaining 2% and 1.3%. In EU, GER40 gapped up US markets closed higher.

  • Commodities – USOil – fell to $69.69  post Chinese data hinting recovery. GOLD – steadied above $2010.
  • Cryptocurrencies BTC recovered the $27500.

Today G7 summit in Japan, US Empire State Manufacturing Index and Eurogroup meeting.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.67%). Breached 91 breaking 200-DMA.  MAs flattened, but MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66 & falling indicating correction lower, H1 ATR 0.159, Daily ATR 1.096.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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