- USDIndex – Remains bid and back to test 109.85. US Mortgages over 6%, (Highest since 2008), 2/30yr. yields most inverted since 2000. 2/10’s 45 pts inverted. INFLATION the only story in town. Key next week will be the Fed’s new forecasts, and especially the dot plot and what it suggests about the terminal rate. Fed funds futures point to about a 4.4% rate in early spring.
- EUR – Trades at 0.9964 now and remains capped by Parity 1.0000 resistance. Lane yesterday suggested that another 75 bp rate hike is not a done deal. EU is looking for $140 billion for Winter Energy support.
- JPY BOJ intervention not imminent. Katayama: Japan lacks effective means to combat Yen’s sharp falls . USDJPY back to 143.75, 145.00 remains vital resistance.
- GBP back to key 1.1500 support zone now, having rejected 1.1600 yesterday.
- Stocks US stocks held at lows and remain subdued after Tuesdays bloodbath.(S&P500 +0.34% 13pts 3946) FUTS trade at 3965. Starbucks +5.53%, TSLA +3.59%. NASDAQ best performer (+0.74%) Asian stock markets also weak and European FUTS also flat.
- USOil topped at $90.00 yesterday and trades at $88.30 now. 20-day moving average sits at $89.00.
- Gold – remains anchored under $1700 trades at key $1688 now.
- BTC – slumped to $19.5k but holds at $20k now. Ethereum PARIS Merge successful this morning.
Overnight & Today – US Philly Fed, US Retail Sales, Speech from ECB’s de Guindos.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.39%) The BOJ intervention gossip & weak data not aiding the YEN yet. Rallied from 142.50 lows yesterday to 143.70 now 145.00 remains key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 57.50, H1 ATR 0.227, Daily ATR 1.632.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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