Events to Look Out for Next Week

Andria Pichidi

September 30, 2022

There is much riding on next week’s agenda with OPEC+ and Eurogroup meetings, China on holiday for the whole week and lots of political turmoil in Europe and the UK. UK PM Truss and her government started with a bang, and not a good one. Both the UK and EU are facing a crisis of confidence while concerns over energy shortages worsen. European energy ministers approved a EUR 140 bln plan to limit the impact of the gas crisis, as damage to Russia’s main pipelines to Europe erase any lingering hope that flows will resume at some point soon. The threat of more damage to energy infrastructure continues to linger. RBA & RBNZ monetary policy decision and US NFP data are also on tap next week.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

China – National Day (03-07 October)
Eurogroup Meeting
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to a 2-year low of 52.5 from a prior low of 52.8 in both August and July, versus an 18-year high of 63.7 in March 2021, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Tuesday – 04 October 2022

Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision & Statement (AUD, GMT 03:30) – The RBA is expected to raise interest rates once again by 50 bps to 2.85% despite the latest comments from RBA governor Lowe who laid the ground for a slowdown in the pace of tightening.
Factory Orders (USD, GMT 14:00) – Factory orders are expected to fall -0.5% in August, with a 0.2% ex-transportation increase. Shipments should climb 0.2% and inventories should rise 0.1%. The forecasts reflect an expected -1.3% decline for durable goods orders with a 0.3% ex-transportation gain and a -4.4% transportation orders decrease, alongside a -3.1% drop in defense orders. Boeing orders plunged to 30 planes after bouncing to 130 with the Farnborough Air Show in July, versus a 3-year high of 219 in June of 2021.

Wednesday – 05 October 2022

OPEC-JMMC meeting attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich nations.
Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision & Statement (NZD, GMT 01:00) – The RBNZ is expected to deliver another 50 bp hike, while in the August meeting the bank flagged further tightening in coming months. RBNZ Governor Orr apologized to lawmakers for the bank’s contribution to high inflation, saying “our core inflation is too high and that suggests at some point monetary policy was too loose for a period”.
Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The final September Services PMIs and Manufacturing PMIs in the UK are expected unchanged in contraction territory.
ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The key private payrolls number is expected to climb to 200K (68k higher than last month’s reading).
ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index should tick-down to 56.5 from 56.9 in August, versus a 2-year low of 55.3 in June that was last seen in February of 2021, and an all-time high of 68.4 last November, an 11-year low of 41.8 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November 2008.

Thursday – 06 October 2022

Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 06:00) – Headline August Retail Sales are expected to contract further to -5.1% y/y from -2.6% y/y.
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 210k September nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 315k in August, 526k in July, and 293k in June. Payroll growth should slow into year-end as mortgage rates rise and recession fears mount, though the September declines in initial and continuing claims suggest some upside payroll risk for the month. We assume a 20k factory jobs rise in September, after a 22k August increase. We expect the jobless rate to tick down to 3.6% from 3.7% in August. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.1% after the -0.1% August dip, while the workweek holds at 34.5 for a second month. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3%, the same as in August, while the y/y wage gain should hold steady from 5.2% for a third month.
Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s employment change is anticipated to grow by 20k in September from -39.7K last month.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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