After the worst week since September for stock markets last week, on Monday the US and Europe markets closed flat and end of month profit taking and account balancing has tipped Asia into the red today. The USD tested 2023 highs (105.35) yesterday but is lower today. Overnight: Japan reported strong CPI (3.15), Housing and Retail Sales data AUD Retail sales picked up (1.9% vs. -4.0%) and GER Import prices were weaker than expected as energy prices continue to decline.
- FX – USD Index tested into 105.35, just 4 pips shy of the 2023 high yesterday, back to 104.75 now. EUR tested lows at 1.0530 before recovering 1.0600, JPY breached 136.00 & trades at 136.606 now. Sterling rose over 0.98% yesterday (1.2070), its biggest daily gain in more than seven weeks. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland. Back to 1.2035 now.
- Stocks – The US markets held on to gains after a strong open. (+0.22% to +0.63%) Movers – #TSLA +5.46% & Zoom gained +7% after hours on strong outlook. US500 0.31% (12.20) 3982, US500 FUTS 3979 now.
- Commodities – USOil – Futures dropped to test $75.00 lows, yesterday, before recovering to $76.25 today. Gold – tested the support level at $1805 yesterday before recovering to $1810 now.
- Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Back to test $23k again today from last week’s rejection of $25k.
Today – French & Spanish Prelim. CPI, Swiss KOF, Canadian GDP, US Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Cunliffe & Fed’s Goolsbee.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.28%). Declined to 0.6130 yesterday before recovering to 0.6180 and back to 0.6145 now. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & declining, RSI 38.60, H1 ATR 0.00080, Daily ATR 0.00637.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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