Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00)
Expected ہے کہ September readings
September to remain -0.1% y/y
Consumer confidence (USD, GMT 14:00)
Expectations ہیں کہ یہ Rise ہوگا.
Expected to rise to 92.0
From 84.8 in August
Versus
Year-6 low of 85.7 in April
تمام Confidence measures اپنے Highs پر تھے لیکن Covid-19 کے بعد تمام Crush ہوگئے.
Trade Balance (JPY, GMT 23:50)
امید ہے کہ Japanese Trade Balance Strong decline آئے گا
August at -8.5% y/y
Form downwards revi
Wednesday – 30 September 2020
Presidential debate
– President Trump and Joe Biden will be waging their war of words in person when they take the debate stage in Cleveland on Tuesday for the first of three debates before Election Day.
Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00)
امید ہے کہ یہ Manufacturing PMI neutral رہے گی.
Neutral at 51.2
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00)
GDP Economy کا سب سے اہم Figure ہوتا ہے. اب GDP میں Confirm contraction نظر آرہی ہے.
q/q 20.4%- and -21.7% y/y
Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 06:00)
August میں Sales میں کمی کی توقع ہے.
August 3.4% m/m
Compared
July 4.2% m/m
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00)
August HICP Confirmations یہ ہیں.
Inflation -0.2% y/y
Core at 0.4% y/y
اس Fall کی وجہ تھی.
- Temporary cut to German VAT
- Delay of Summer Sales in Some countries
- Low Energy prices
امید ہے کہ September Preliminary Reading میں Rise آئے.
y/y 0.2% & Core 0.7% y/y
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15)
ADP Employment Survey کی Expectations یہ ہیں.
September 600k
Compared
August 428k
Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30)
Q2 GDP میں Small Boost دیکھا جاسکتا ہے.
Growth to -31.6%
From -31.7%
Component Revisions میں Boost دیکھا جاسکے گا.
Residential construction
Inventories
(Consumption (Residential & Non Residential
اور Downward Revisions دیکھی جاسکے گی
Exports
Imports
Intellectual Property
یہ Q2 GDP Data ہمیں Mandatory Closures کی وجہ سے ہونے والے Powerful Impacts دکھاۓ گا.
Q2 میں
65% – 50% Declines of Foreign Trade
40% – 20% Most measures of Demand
Tankan Outlook Indices (JPY, GMT 23:50)
جب یہ «Index below «0 ہو تو Slow down expected ہوتا ہے. اب Q3 کے لیے Data Manufacturer Index کا 23- پر Stand expected ہے.
Thursday – 01 October 2020
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00)
Expected ہے کہ اس Index میں Easing ہوگی.
Easing to 55.0 in September
From
Year-2 high of 56.0 in August
Versus
Year-11 low of 41.5 in April
Year-14 high of 60.8 in August
Low from last Recession 34.5 in December 2008
All time low 30.3 in June 1980
Friday – 02 October 2020
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30)
July کی Unexpected Higher than Forecast کے بعد اب
.Retail Sales Higher than Forecast
.Industrial Production Higher than Forecast
.In August -4.2% m/m contraction expected
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30)
Non-Farm کی کچھ اہم Readings یہ ہیں.
April collapse -20,787k
Gain in July 1,734k
Gain in August 1,371k
امید کی جارہی ہے کہ April کے Peak Jobless rate 14.7% کے بعد اب Rates 8.4% steady رہیں گے.
August gain 1.2% کے بعد اب Hours worked میں %0.8 بڑھنے کی Assumptions ہیں.
September کی Average Hourly Earnings کے Flat رہنے کی Assumptions ہیں. Q3 میں امید کی جاتی ہے کہ Rebounds ہوں کیونکہ Workers کو واپس کام پر آنا Allow کردیا گیا ہے. اس بہتری کے باوجود
Net drop of employment رہے گا 2020 میں.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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