FX Update – January 13 – USD & Yields stall their run, Politics swirls

FX News Today

President Trump کو impeach کرنے کے لئے آج رات House میں ووٹ ڈالیں گے ، (یوٹیوب نے ان پر 7 دن کے لئے پابندی عائد کردی ہے) ، Pence انہیں ہٹانے کے لئے 25 ویں ترمیم کا آغاز نہیں کریں گے۔، کسی بھی صدر کو دو مرتبہ کبھی بھیimpeach نہیں کیا گیا۔ Equities flat (UBER + 7.24٪، TSLA + 4.72٪، FB -2.24٪، GooG & NFLX -1.00٪) Asian markets بھی فلیٹ ہیں.Bailey کے Negative Interest Rates پر پیچھے ہٹنے کے بعد GBP rallied ۔ surprise inventory drawdowns$ 53.90 ڈالر کے بعد Oil rallied over 1% ، AUD pegged by possible RBA “push back” to strong AUD۔ Gold recovered $1850

China نے month 5 میں سب سے زیادہ Daily Covid Cases سامنے آئے ہیں.

  • USDIndex – Back under 90.00 from rejection of 90.50 yesterday. Trades at 89.95 just over S3 – PP 90.40 – S3 89.90, S2 90.07
  • EUR – Recovered back over 1.2200 (R2) – Trades at 1.2215 now– PP – 1.2157. R3 1.2225 –

                                        

  • JPY – Reverses under 104.000 – after rejection 104.50 on Monday. – Trades at 103.68 (200hr MA).  – PP 103.90,  S1 103.55
  • GBP – Big rally – spurred by USD weakness and Governor Bailey pushing back on Negative Interest Rates. Breached 1.3600 after multiple attempts – rallied to 1.3690 –  PP 1.3585, R1 1.3668, R2 1.3715
  • AUD – Over 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7770 (R2) now. R1 0.7748
  • NZD – Over 0.7200 yesterday to test 0.7240 (R3) now. r2 0.7215 
  • CAD – back to test 1.2700 (S2) today as Oil rises – S1 1.2725, S3 1.2664 from Friday
  • CHF – Trades back to 0.8850 (200hrMA) and under S3 (0.8865)- PP 0.8900
  • BTC – Back to around $34,600. – PP today 34,500, r1 36,600, s1 32,800
  • GOLD – Recovers over 1850 (PP) – Trades at 1860 (R1) – R2 1875, PP 1840   
  • USOil – New 11-mth high $53.90 (R2) after surprise drawdown in private inventories (EIA data later). R3 $54.70, r1 53.55.
  • USA500 – Closed up 1.5 (+0.04%) 3800 – USA500 FUTS now at 3808. 48 days north of 20SMA (3740).

Today – EZ industrial production, US CPI, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bullard, Brainard, Harker, Clarida

Biggest (FX) Mover(GBPAUD (+0.23%. پانچواں دن MA 200 .High سے Key Resistance  Test 1.7625 .Bounce ہے 1.7650 اور RSI 59  Trend line higher اور MACD Histogram  .Rising اور Signal line higher اور North جانب H1 ATR 0.023  Stochastics Rising OB Daily 0.0125

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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