Sterling remains pressured even as GDP bounces

GBPUSD, H1

UK GDP اپنیFinal ReadingمیںQuarter Growth Rate revised higher میں Boost آیا.پہلے یہ
% 4.8تھا. اب یہ% 5.5 آیا. اس حساب سےAnnual Rate 23.6% y/y ہے.Annual comparison میں یقینی طور پر Virus کی وجہ سے Distortions موجود ہیں لیکن اس کے بعد بھی     Extend balance .number look positive بھی Healthy لگ رہاہے.Exports rising 6.2% q/q اورImports 2.4% q/q
Third quarter اورFourth quarter میں Picture کافی مختلف ہوگی. وجہ ہیں
Furlough scheme phasing out , National delivery problems.ان چیزوں سے Consumption پر اثر پڑے گا. اب ان وجوہات کی وجہ سےQ2 کافیOutdated لگ رہاہے اور اسی لیےUK outlookمیں تبدیلی نہیں آسکےگی.Governor Baileyنے Signalدیا ہے کہAsset purchase continue رہنے کے ساتھ ساتھ وہ Rates بھی بڑھا سکتےہیں لیکن ان سب کے لیے اگلے سال تک کا انتظار ہے.

Cable مزید 2 دن سے گررہا ہے.Lows 2021 کی طرف اور1.3400 کو Test کرتے ہوۓ.Twenty one-hour EMA پرRecovery capped . اب یہ1.3436 کے آس پاس. MACD میںSigns of life. RSI 39.40 EURGBPتین دن سے0.8600 سے اوپر اور اب0.8625 پر.GBPJPY 150.40

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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