Brazilian Real اور Mexican Peso کے بعد South African Rand سب سے اہم Best Performing Currency رہی. Emerging markets میں Developing Countries میں Highest real yields اور
South African Reserve Bank Policy QE کے End ہونے کی وجہ سے South African Rand بہتر کارکردگی کرتا رہا. آج SARB کا Interest rate announcement ہے. اس کے ساتھ Consumer confidence اور Unemployment Data بھی ہے. موجودہ وقت میں %30 زائد Young Job Seekers ہیں.
Possibility ہے کہ Fed interest rate low رکھے گی Near Future میں. اس لیے امید ہے کہ اس کی Demand بڑھ سکتی ہے. Investors borrow Dollar اور High yielding currencies میں خریداری کریں گے. اس کو
Carry trade کہتے ہیں. Rand نے %4 Carry trade اس ماہ بناۓ.
Mid March بناۓ ہوۓ Level کو South African Rand مسلسل 4 دن سے تھامے ہوۓ ہے. Wednesday کو 16.35 سے نیچے آگئی. مارکیٹ جوکہ %50 Fibonacci ہے April high to January Low. اہم بات یہ ہے کہ 3 ماہ میں 3 بار اس Level کو Break کرنے کی کوشش ناکام رہی. اگر مارکیٹ نیچے جاتی رہی تو %61 اور %76 تک جایا جاسکتا ہے.
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Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst – hfindonesia
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